Santa Clara County transportation projects could see changes depending on the outcome of a regional sales tax measure set for a vote on November 3. While the immediate impact on the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) might be less severe than for other Bay Area agencies, service reductions for Caltrain and BART are anticipated if the measure fails.
Senate Bill 63, known as the Regional Transit Measure, proposes a 0.5% sales tax increase in Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, and San Mateo counties, and a 1% increase in San Francisco. If approved by voters, this tax would take effect on April 1, 2027, for 14 years, aiming to generate approximately $980 million annually for public transit agencies across the region. VTA is slated to receive about 25% of these funds, roughly $245 million each year.
Despite projecting a $15 million deficit by 2027, VTA is currently financially stable and not planning service reductions whether the measure passes or fails. However, the absence of new funding would mean a lack of potential improvements. Sergio Lopez, chair of VTA’s board of directors, noted that while VTA is stable now, service "would not get better" if the measure does not pass. He added that the measure could "unlock a lot of possibilities" for transit enhancements.
Other transit agencies serving Santa Clara County face more immediate funding challenges. Caltrain anticipates a $75 million deficit in the fiscal year beginning next July, while BART projects a $370 million funding gap. These agencies have warned of significant service cuts if the regional sales tax increase is rejected by voters.
Caltrain, which offers commuter rail service from San Francisco to Gilroy, has outlined extensive potential cutbacks. These include reducing peak weekday service from every 15 minutes to once an hour, ending service at 9 p.m. instead of 1 a.m., closing more than one-third of its stations, and eliminating all weekend service. Pat Burt, VTA’s representative on Caltrain’s board, stated that service to South County, from San Jose through Morgan Hill to Gilroy, would be considered for cuts due to its high subsidy per passenger and low ridership. For some riders, like Menlo Park resident Masato Taketomi, the loss of weekend service would be felt. Taketomi, who uses Caltrain for weekend travel with his bicycle, expressed his strong preference for the train over other transport options, stating, “Trains have character.”
BART also forecasts substantial reductions if the measure fails, including a 70% decrease in train operating hours, a 50% fare increase, the closure of 15 stations, and a 25% reduction in the length of its system. It is important to note that the two BART stations within Santa Clara County—Milpitas and Berryessa/North San Jose—are operated by VTA and are unlikely to be directly affected if the measure fails. Additionally, the $13 billion project to extend BART to downtown San Jose and Santa Clara would not receive funding from this specific transit measure.
Opponents of the measure, such as the Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit, argue that transit agencies may be overstating the severity of potential budget cuts. Thunder Parley, an officer with the committee and a San Jose resident, suggested agencies should focus on managing existing funds better rather than presenting worst-case scenarios. Parley cited Caltrain’s South County service as an example of inefficiency, pointing to an approximate $40,000 annual subsidy per rider.
Conversely, supporters of the measure contend that significant transit cuts would lead to an increase in cars on the road, worsening traffic congestion. A study from SPUR suggested that the evening commute on the Bay Bridge could take 43 minutes longer, though the report's identified bottlenecks are located north of Santa Clara County. Adam Cohen, a senior researcher at the Mineta Transportation Institute at San Jose State University, acknowledged the complexity of the decision, stating that voters will need to "trust their gut one way or another."
