Santa Clara County voters are currently contributing to the Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) through existing sales tax measures, which total 1.625% and provide nearly $900 million to the agency annually. Now, a new regional measure, Connect Bay Area, proposes an additional 0.5% sales tax over 14 years. This new tax would generate an estimated $265 million more for the VTA each year.
Pat Waite, a board member and treasurer of the Silicon Valley Business Alliance, argues that this proposed increase is out of proportion with the VTA's actual financial needs. Waite notes that the VTA currently projects a $15 million deficit, even though farebox receipts cover less than 6% of its operating costs. He questions the necessity of a 20% budget increase for the VTA, stating the agency has not demonstrated a clear need for additional funds beyond vague spending categories.
Concerns about the VTA's management history have been highlighted in four Civil Grand Jury reports, issued in 2003, 2009, 2019, and 2026. The 2003 report noted that the VTA’s “operating performance of VTA compared unfavorably to its peer organizations,” a sentiment echoed in the 2019 report which stated that operating performance had deteriorated over the prior decade, both historically and relative to peer agencies. Furthermore, Waite points to the VTA’s track record of failing to deliver significant projects, such as the BART extension and the Eastridge light rail line, either on time or within budget.
Proponents of the Connect Bay Area measure claim that mass transit systems are facing a “fiscal cliff.” However, Waite contends that this fiscal challenge emerged six years ago with the mandated three-week shutdown to slow the spread of COVID-19. During this period, BART ridership plummeted by 94% from its 2019 levels, and VTA ridership fell by 79%. Massive federal subsidies, totaling $4.4 trillion, allowed Bay Area transit systems to maintain spending levels, defer cost reductions, and hope for a return to pre-pandemic ridership.
Despite these subsidies, ridership has not fully recovered. As of June 2026, BART's monthly ridership stands at 58% of its 2019 average, while VTA is at 86%. A linear regression analysis of the three and a half years ending in June 2026 suggests that VTA could recover to 2019 ridership levels around August 2030, primarily driven by bus service. BART, however, is projected to take an additional 15 years, reaching 2019 levels by 2045. This situation is particularly challenging for BART, which previously had a strong farebox recovery rate but now projects significant budget shortfalls without new tax revenue.
The influx of federal funding enabled transit agencies to continue operating at unsustainable levels. From 2019 to 2025, BART's operating expenses increased by 38%, or 7% in real terms, pushing the cost per trip from $5.35 to $16.09, representing a 139% increase in real terms. For the VTA, spending rose by 21%, though it decreased by 1% in real terms, and the cost per trip increased by 60%.
Waite also highlights that Santa Clara County residents would bear a significant portion of the new tax, subsidizing BART, Caltrain, and other regional transit systems by approximately $45 million annually. He suggests that rejecting the proposed tax increase would send a clear message to mass transit agencies: they must acknowledge the lasting impact of COVID-19 on transit patterns and adjust their service costs accordingly, rather than relying on continued, profligate spending.
