Santa Clara County voters will decide on November 3 whether to approve Senate Bill 63, also known as the Regional Transit Measure. This regional sales tax increase is designed to fund public transit across the Bay Area. If rejected, the measure could impact transportation projects, though the effect on Santa Clara County is expected to be less severe than in other parts of the region.
Senate Bill 63 would implement a 0.5% sales tax increase in Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara, and San Mateo counties, and a 1% increase in San Francisco. If approved, the tax would last 14 years, beginning April 1, 2027. It is projected to generate roughly $980 million annually for regional transit agencies. The Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) is slated to receive about 25% of this revenue, totaling $245 million each year.
While VTA anticipates a $15 million deficit by 2027, the agency reports financial stability for now and is not planning service reductions regardless of the measure's outcome. Sergio Lopez, VTA’s board chair and a Campbell councilmember, told San José Spotlight that the main impact for VTA if the measure fails is that service "would not get better." He noted that passing the measure would unlock many possibilities for improvements that other counties might not have.
However, other transit agencies serving Santa Clara County face more immediate financial shortfalls. Caltrain expects a $75 million deficit in the coming fiscal year, which starts next July. If the regional sales tax increase fails, Caltrain has predicted extensive cutbacks starting next summer. These could include reducing peak weekday service from every 15 minutes to once an hour, ending service at 9 p.m. instead of 1 a.m., closing over one-third of its stations, and eliminating weekend service entirely. Pat Burt, VTA’s representative on Caltrain’s board, stated that service to South County, from San Jose through Morgan Hill to Gilroy, would likely be considered for cuts due to its high subsidy per passenger and low ridership. Menlo Park resident Masato Taketomi shared his appreciation for Caltrain, particularly its weekend service, while waiting at the Sunnyvale station.
BART is also forecasting significant service reductions if the measure is not approved. These include a 70% reduction in train operating hours starting next summer, a 50% fare increase, the closure of 15 stations, and a 25% reduction in the length of the system. However, the two BART stations in Santa Clara County—Milpitas and Berryessa/North San Jose—are operated by VTA and are unlikely to be directly affected if the measure fails. The $13 billion project to extend BART to downtown San Jose and Santa Clara would not receive funding from this regional transit measure.
Opponents of the measure, such as the Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit, accuse transit agencies of exaggerating the impact of budget cuts rather than prioritizing better fund management. Thunder Parley, an officer with the committee and a San Jose resident, told San José Spotlight that agencies are acting "devastatingly broke" despite continuing to receive $6.2 billion from existing sources. Parley cited Caltrain’s South County service as an example of inefficiency, stating it subsidizes riders at a cost of approximately $40,000 per person annually.
Supporters of the measure counter that transit cuts would lead to more cars on the road, worsening traffic congestion. A recent SPUR study suggested that the evening commute on the Bay Bridge could take 43 minutes longer, though the bottlenecks cited are north of Santa Clara County. Adam Cohen, a senior researcher at the Mineta Transportation Institute at San Jose State University, noted the difficult decision facing voters, who will have to trust their gut.
